Phoenix and much of Arizona are experiencing record-shattering heat as the 2025 monsoon season officially began on June 15, but widespread rainfall is likely to arrive later due to a dominant high‑pressure ridge over the Southwest.
Brutal Heat Grips the Valley
Record‑tying temperatures have descended on Phoenix, with Sunday’s high soaring to 116°F, matching a May 2021 record, as noted by the National Weather Service . The ongoing Extreme Heat Warning remains in effect through Monday evening for Maricopa County and much of southern Arizona, warning of dangerous conditions and heat‑related illness risks yahoo.com+2weather.gov+2maricopa.gov+2. Temperatures up to 115°F are forecast today, followed by upper‑110s most of the week, increasing the likelihood of dehydration, heat stroke, and wildfire activity.
Monsoon Officially Begins, But Moisture Lags
The National Weather Service marks June 15 as the official start of the North American monsoon, the seasonal shift in winds that transports moisture from the Gulf and Pacific into Arizona weather.goven.wikipedia.org. However, 2025’s monsoon outlook indicates that Phoenix is “lean above normal” for rainfall, with 33–50% probability of above-average precipitation; eastern-central Arizona has an even stronger chance youtube.com+3weather.gov+312news.com+3. Still, scattered storms and humidity increases are not expected to materialize until late June or early July, due to persistent regional dryness washingtonpost.com+3weather.gov+3azfamily.com+3.
Hazards Beyond Heat
As heat persists, so does fire danger. Sustained triple-digit temperatures, gusty winds, and low humidity are triggering Red Flag Warnings on certain days, particularly Thursday and Friday, due to elevated wildfire risk . Local air quality advisories warn of increasing particulate pollution, urging valley residents—especially those with respiratory conditions—to limit outdoor activity during afternoons and evenings.
Flash Flood Threats in the High Country
While the Valley remains hot and dry, early‐season thunderstorm clusters are forming over northern Arizona’s mountains. Flood Watches briefly appeared around Flagstaff and Scottsdale earlier this month following rare June storms that dropped flash floods and minor hail . That system delivered 1–3 inches of rain in parts of Yavapai and Coconino counties and triggered warnings well outside flash flood season azfamily.com.
Statewide Forecast & Preparedness
Monsoon Awareness Week (June 8–14) focused on educating about heat risks, but as the season shifts, attention turns to flooding, dust storms, lightning, and haboobs maricopa.gov+4weather.gov+4weather.gov+4. Meteorologists caution that with atmospheric heating, increasingly frequent afternoon storms may unleash sudden hazards. Residents are urged to heed NWS alerts, avoid low-lying washes during thunderstorms, and respect temporary road closures.
Tips for Staying Safe This Week
- Heat Relief: Maricopa County urges hydration, shade, and monitoring at-risk individuals, with cooling centers accessible via 2‑1‑1 .
- Wildfire Awareness: Avoid outdoor burning, heed Red Flag Warnings, and maintain defensible space, as capacities remain stretched under extreme conditions.
- Drive with Caution: Watch for downbursts and reduced visibility in mountain areas once storms arrive; flash flooding can occur with little warning.
- Stay Informed: Follow NWS Phoenix for daily briefs, updated watches/warnings, and safety guidance through summer.
Outlook: Balanced Between Heat and Relief
Arizona faces a challenging weather transition. The Valley continues to endure intense heat in the low‑110s, but with the monsoon officially underway, there is hope for moisture and storm relief in the weeks ahead. Chancellor projections favor above-normal precipitation, especially in eastern‑central zones like Pima and Cochise counties, though Phoenix may receive less rain relative to the region weather.gov.
Bottom line: Phoenix and much of Arizona enter a crucial stretch of desert weather—record‑tying heat now with the monsoon on the horizon. As temperatures remain dangerously high, locals are urged to stay vigilant and prepared. While the storms might cool and water the landscape, they will also bring new risks. For the latest advisories and preparedness tips, visit weather.gov or Maricopa County’s official emergency sites.
Let me know if you’d like an infographic summarizing heat risk levels or monsoon timing visuals!
Here’s a complete article based on current weather conditions and official advisories for Arizona:
Arizona Enters Monsoon Season Under Extreme Heat Warning
As the 2025 North American monsoon season officially begins, most of Arizona is battling record-breaking heat. Phoenix tied a previous high of 116°F on Sunday, June 15, as extreme heat warnings remain in effect for much of the state through Monday evening.
Record-Tying Temperatures Grip the State
Phoenix and surrounding areas are experiencing dangerously high temperatures, with forecasts showing sustained highs between 111°F and 116°F through the week. According to the National Weather Service (NWS), the temperature tied the city’s record from 2021, prompting renewed warnings about heat-related illnesses.
A major heat risk warning is in effect across Maricopa County—including Phoenix, Glendale, and Scottsdale—through 8 p.m. Monday, June 16. Residents are advised to avoid outdoor activity during midday hours and use cooling centers available throughout the metro area. The county’s 2-1-1 hotline offers information on locations for free cooling resources and transportation.
Monsoon Season Begins With Delay in Rainfall
Although June 15 marks the official start of Arizona’s monsoon season, early moisture is lagging. Forecasters attribute the delay to a dominant high-pressure ridge over the Southwest, which is preventing monsoonal moisture from moving northward.
Still, the long-range outlook shows promise. Central and eastern Arizona, including counties like Pima and Cochise, are projected to have a 33–50% chance of above-average rainfall this monsoon season, according to the Climate Prediction Center. However, Phoenix may receive less precipitation than rural regions due to persistent dry air and urban heat island effects.
Increased Wildfire and Flood Risk
In addition to heat-related threats, the state faces heightened wildfire danger. Red Flag Warnings have been issued for parts of northern Arizona, where gusty winds and dry brush create conditions ripe for ignition. The Arizona Department of Forestry and Fire Management is urging residents to avoid outdoor burning and maintain defensible space around properties.
Meanwhile, flash flood threats could arise as early-season thunderstorms begin forming in higher elevations. Earlier this month, storms in northern Arizona dropped up to 3 inches of rain in parts of Yavapai and Coconino counties, briefly triggering flood watches near Flagstaff.
Public Safety and Preparedness Efforts
Monsoon Awareness Week, which ran from June 8–14, emphasized the need for early preparation. Officials encouraged Arizonans to recognize symptoms of heat exhaustion, prepare for flash flooding, and avoid driving through flooded roadways. As storm activity increases, the public is urged to monitor NWS alerts and follow local advisories.
Key safety tips include:
- Hydrate frequently and avoid outdoor work between 10 a.m. and 4 p.m.
- Check on elderly neighbors, outdoor workers, and pets.
- Use public cooling centers, particularly for unhoused individuals or those without air conditioning.
- Avoid parking or camping in dry washes or flood-prone areas.
What’s Next?
Arizona is likely to remain in a prolonged heatwave through at least June 20. As the atmospheric pattern begins to shift, storms are expected to develop over the high country before moving into the Valley later in the month.
The official start of monsoon season signals the potential for relief from extreme heat, but it also brings increased risk of severe weather—including flooding, dust storms, and lightning. Residents are advised to remain vigilant and stay updated on forecast changes via weather.gov and local emergency management resources.